Who didn’t come to pander?

Yesterday four candidates for President of the United States (Democrat Clinton plus Republicans Kasich, Cruz and Trump) appeared before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) yesterday and tried to outdo each other in supporting Israel and denouncing Palestinian violence. I imagine my Arab and Muslim readers will see nothing new in this. But they may also assume that it reflects prevailing Jewish views. After all, AIPAC is the leading “Israel lobby” organization and it draws a BIG crowd. What else are these candidates doing if not trying to bring around Jewish voters?

They will be surprised, as will many others around the world, to learn that this Chris Hayes video from last night, featuring the only Jew ever to begin to get close to a major party presidential nomination nomination, is much closer to representing majority views among Jewish Americans, especially those of more liberal bent (who are more numerous than the orthodox). Bernie Sanders wants to reach out to Palestinians and Arabs, who he says cannot be ignored:

Most American Jews in fact vote Democratic: 78% for Obama in 2008 and 69% for Obama in 2012, even after Prime Minister Netanyahu’s intense effort to undermine him. It would be a truly historic shift for Republicans–Trump, Cruz or Kasich–to win more than 50% of the relatively small Jewish vote. That hasn’t happened for 100 years. The only states with enough Jews to make a real difference even in a close race in this year’s election are New York, which has voted Democratic since 1984, and California, which has voted Democratic since 1992. Neither is a likely Republican win this year.

So if it’s not about Jewish votes, what is it about? Some will say money, and I won’t deny, that is a factor. Sheldon Adelson isn’t the only Jewish donor pulling strings to make candidates say what he wants them to say. A lot of the big Jewish money supports Hillary Clinton, which gives her a good reason to show up at AIPAC and say lots of pro-Israel things, even if she is guaranteed the lion’s share of the Jewish vote.

But for the Republicans it is about the Christians, not the Jews, and more than the money. More American Christians think God gave Israel to the Jewish people than American Jews do (44 vs. 40%). Among white evangelical Protestants, that figure is 82%.

AIPAC is a necessary stop for Republicans not because of the Jewish votes, but rather because of the Christian ones. This is especially important for Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, who are in a tug-of-war for evangelical votes. It is simply extraordinary that the thrice-divorced braggart (that’s Trump) can somehow attract votes away from the evangelical preacher’s son (that’s Cruz), but it seems to be happening. Ben Carson, who has joined the Trump camp, isn’t alone.

Trump at AIPAC was at best incoherent. He said he will cancel the Iran nuclear deal and that he will enforce it vigorously. He said he would be more evenhanded–which would put him in Bernie’s ball park–but then advocated moving the US embassy to the “eternal capital of the Jewish people,” Jerusalem. He is apparently unaware that would align him solidly with Israel and wreck prospects for a the mutually beneficial deal he somewhat eloquently insisted upon.

My capital is in Washington DC, not Jerusalem. I have no idea what God thinks or did several millenia ago and I doubt anyone else does either. Most American Jews I know feel the same way, even those who have a great deal of affection for Israel, as Bernie Sanders–who has lived on a Kibbutz–clearly does. What we want is the deal Trump talks about but then makes unlikely. Believe me, he says, I didn’t come to pander. Then he does.

PS: For those of more literary bent, here is the speech Bernie Sanders did not give at AIPAC.