Categories: Daniel Serwer

The Kingdom needs to cool it

Atheer Ahmed Kakan of the (Turkish) Anadolu Agency asked questions last week. I replied:

1. What do you think of Trump policy in the Middle East right now?

A: Trump policy in the Middle East seems calculated to push back hard on Iran, in cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but it is having perverse effects. The war in Yemen is going badly, the blockade of Qatar has driven Doha closer to Tehran and Ankara, and the forced resignation of Saad Hariri has united Lebanon against the Kingdom. Ironically, Trump has done nothing to push back against Iran or its proxies in Syria.

2. What do you have to say about Saudis new developments? Adopting “moderate version of Islam”? Attacking Iran publicly? Aligning with Israel against Iran? Re-engaging with Iraq?

A: No one I know would object to the Kingdom advocating for more moderate Islam. Re-engaging with Iraq is also a good idea. Mouthing off against Iran is not. I’m not sure how far the alignment with Israel is really going to go.

3. What do you think the consequences of Trump letting Saudis hand in the MidEast? Are we witnessing Saudi-Iranian war? New civil war in Lebanon? New opened war in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon beside Yemen?

A: I trust cooler heads will prevent some of those things from happening, but there are a lot of risks. The Kingdom needs to assess its own capabilities and align its actions with those. Hotheadedness doesn’t win wars, or peace.

Daniel Serwer

Share
Published by
Daniel Serwer

Recent Posts

Nuclear Iran – facts, goals and opportunity 

President Trump’s decision to kill the Iran nuclear deal was an obvious failure. Lack of…

2 days ago

Winning the war with equanimity

As I prepare to leave Kyiv Wednesday, here are notes on issues not covered in…

1 week ago

Ukraine’s opportunities and threats

Western appeasement would be a serious mistake. Ending Putin's threat to Ukraine will prevent war…

1 week ago

Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses

Whatever the strengths and weaknesses on the Ukrainian side, Moscow will not implement whatever it…

1 week ago

Culture, religion, and education in Ukraine

We shouldn't expect world class museums, performances, and universities. When we find them, they merit…

1 week ago

Rebuilding Ukraine: Hopes and Challenges

I'll be speaking at the Kyiv School of Economics Monday, also via Zoom. Please join:…

2 weeks ago