Day: July 15, 2019
Only time will tell
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won Mexico’s July 1 presidential election with 5
Keen on understanding Mexico’s current political situation, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted an event on AMLO and the Fourth Transformation: One Year After Historic Election Victory on July 8. The panel was composed of Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas Professors Blanca Heredia and Mariá Amparo Casar, Global Fellow and Director of Buendia & Laredo Jorge Buendia, as well as Albright Stonebridge Group Senior Vice President Antonio Ortiz-Mena. The panel was moderated by Deputy Director of the Mexico Institute, Christopher Wilson.
Wilson underlined that AMLO promised to fight corruption, portraying himself as someone who could be trusted also to maintain fiscal responsibility. The question is whether his wave of support will continue or crash? AMLO had one-third of voter support in 2006 and 2012, but he currently has an approval rating between 60 to 70 percent—impressive when compared with former President Peña Nieto. Expectations are high.
For example, 41
Blanca indicated that language is key for AMLO. He treats corruption as a moral rather than a legal problem. In addition, he focuses on transformation but not goals: destruction of the old system rather than construction of a new one. The new leadership has been described as a populist regime in the making—one that is unique because it is situated on the left side of the political spectrum. It is all about breaking apart a system that excludes parts of society. Blanca concluded that there is an opportunity to move away from the deformed development that has hindered Mexico in the past.
Though AMLO has indicated that he has already met 78 out of the 100 promises he made, Amparo Casar suggests AMLO administration policies aimed at security, inequality, and corruption are not as effective as they could be. AMLO’s insistence that “nothing and no one is above the law” and “if you have to choose between justice and the law, do not hesitate, choose justice” can be problematic and dangerous in a country like Mexico.
Ortiz-Mena concluded with an economic perspective—looking at the possibility of increased stability and growth in Mexico. While the growth rate has remained around that seen under Peña Nieto—2.3 percent—Ortiz-Mena believes that Mexico can reach a growth rate of 4
The panel showed wide variance on Mexico’s prospects. It is still not clear whether there will be major changes, or whether the country will regress to familiar patterns. A serious transformation is still uncertain. Only time will tell.
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Corruption and concessions
On July 9 the American Enterprise Institute held a panel discussion about the intersection between authoritarian corruption, dictatorial regimes, terrorism, and criminal abuse of free markets. The panel guests included Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Julius Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, and Daniel Twining, President of the International Republican Institute. The panel was moderated by Clay R. Fuller, Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow at AEI, where he researches authoritarian governance, illicit finance, and corruption.
Mesquita noted that the traditional perpetrators of corrupt acts are not limited to autocrats, terrorists or drug dealers. Even democratically elected leaders present corruption risk, especially when they make deals with corrupt actors, even though the deals are meant to further the interests of a democratic nation. This is one of the reasons it is so difficult to combat corruption. To solve the problem, countries must address the question of how to please constituents on key policy issues without “concessions” to corruption. Corrupt government leaders can pay their cronies, to the detriment of the citizens.
Twining said that when democratic countries support corrupt governments through concession payments to further foreign policy agendas, there is a spillover into surrounding countries. Terrorism, migration, and human trafficking can be tracked to corrupt and kleptocratic governance.
Fuller discussed corruption more broadly, noting that corruption is not unique to kleptocratic, despotic, and authoritarian regimes. Rather, corruption in these systems of governance is more visible and perhaps more detrimental to large swathes of the populace because it privileges a small group, granting them nearly all legitimate government powers.
With regards to how to mitigate corruption, Mesquita focused on the promotion of transparency. More government transparency drives accountability, which can spur the development of good governance. Constituents can play an important role in democratic states. It is important to educate their publics about the effects that corruption has in authoritarian countries, and the way that concession payments can contribute to corruption. Education on this issue will increase the priority that democratic governments give to better governance overseas, rather than just a blind pursuit of foreign policy goals.
Furthermore, Mesquita believes that the promotion of democracy is key to good governance abroad. While the United States has tried to promote democracy, past attempts have frequently fallen short. Mesquita thinks that US efforts have not been sincere; autocrats will comply more readily to US policy in exchange for money if there are no stipulations regarding changes in government. However, the biggest barrier to dealing with corruption is the fact that despots rely on few people to stay in power. Corrupt leaders allow their cronies to steal, launder money, and pad their coffers at the expense of citizens as long as they remain loyal.
Twining discussed the effect that the Chinese Belt and Road initiative is having on corruption globally. Specifically, in parts of Asian, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, authoritarian leaders are taking Chinese loans, aid, and investments. These deals contribute to corruption in local politics because they are often not transparent. Furthermore, they involve a potential loss of sovereignty, especially if they default on loans. He concluded that the United States has an important role to play in buttressing transparency and accountability globally. The desire for freedom and good governance is universal.
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Peace Picks July 15 -July 19
1. After Sistani and Khamenei: Looming Successions Will Shape the Middle East|July 15 2019|12:00pm|Atlantic Council |Register Here
At a time of rising tensions between the United States and Iran, Iran and the wider Shia world are facing important successions for leadership that will impact a number of issues. These include how independent Iraq will be of foreign influence, whether Iran finally succeeds in exporting its unique system of government, whether Iran continues to comply with a 2015 nuclear agreement, and the nature of both countries’ relations, or lack thereof, with the United States. Please join us for a discussion of these issues and the release of a new report, “After Sistani and Khamenei: How Looming Successions Will Shape the Middle East,” by Abbas Kadhim and Barbara Slavin.
Moderator: Moshen Milani, Executive Director, Center for Strategic & Diplomatic Studies
Panelists:
Kadhim: Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Barbara Slavin: Director, Future of Iran Initiative
Mohammed Ayatolahi Tabaar: Associate Professor, Bush School of Government and Public Service
2. US-Colombia Partnership: From Venezuela’s Crisis to Counter-Narcotics Efforts|July 16, 2019|9:00am|Atlantic Council|Register Here
Colombia is a strategic leader in Latin America and an indispensable partner for the United States. Its role in working to find a solution to the crisis in Venezuela is vital, while, domestically, Colombia continues to absorb more Venezuelan migrants. The Duque administration is also demonstrating an increased commitment to eradicating coca crops.
How can the US-Colombia strategic partnership further advance regional stability? What is the current Colombian perspective to finding a peaceful democratic transition in Venezuela? What new steps has Colombia deployed to reduce coca cultivation?
Join the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the United States Institute of Peace for on Tuesday, July 16, 2019, from 9:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. (EDT) for a timely conversation on the US-Colombia partnership and its broader importance.
Speakers: To be confirmed
3. War in Syria: The Kurdish Perspective|July 17, 2019|12:00pm|National Press Club 529 14th Street Northwest First Amendment Lounge Washington, DC 20045|Register Here
Please join Turkish Heritage Organization on July 17th, 2019 as we host a panel on the war in Syria. More details to come.
Moderator: Katherine Brumund, Turkish Heritage Organization
Panelists:
Abdullah Kedo: Mebmebr of the Yekiti Party and the Political Commission of ENKS
Abdulaziz Tammo: President, Independent Syrian Kurdish Association
Farouk Belal: Syrian Activist, Co-Founder of the Syrian Cultural House
Shlomo Bolts: Policy and Advocacy Officer, Syrian American Coucil
4. U.S. and Turkey Relations |July 15, 2019|11:00am|National Press Club 529 14th Street Northwest First Amendment Lounge Washington, DC 20045|Register Here
Please join THO on July 15, 2019 from 11 AM-12:30 PM as we hosts Former Military Representative of Turkey to NATO, Lieutenant General (Ret.) Ergin Saygun for a discussion on U.S.-Turkey Relations on the Third Anniversary of the Attempted Coup in Turkey. More speakers to be added in the coming days.
Moderator: Mark Hall: Filmmaker and Lawyer
Panelists:
H.E. Edward Whitfield: Co-Founder of Turkish Caucus, Former U.S. Congressman
General (Ret.) Ergin Saygun: Former Deputy Chief of Turkish General Staff
5. Prospects for U.S.-Russia Relations: A Perspective from Moscow|July 15, 2019|3:00pm|Center for Strategic and International Studies|Register Here
The conclusion of the Mueller investigation renewed President Trump’s desire to meet with Vladimir Putin and to intensify U.S.-Russian dialogue in general. Both countries face numerous problems, from Venezuela to strategic stability, that require management. Is more effective management of these problems and bilateral relations as such possible? How will Russia approach relations with the U.S. leading up to the 2020 elections and beyond? Does Russia have a strategy vis-à-vis the U.S., and if so, what are its major elements? Lastly, how will the election interference issue impact U.S.-Russia relations after the publication of the Mueller report, and how is Moscow going to address it?
Speakers:
Dmitry Suslov: Deputy Director, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, Higher School of Economics (Moscow)
Jeffery Mankoff: Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
6. The Future of U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy: A Conversation with representatives Abigal Spanberger and Michael Waltz |June 11th , 2019|2:00pm-3:30pm|National Endowment for Democracy, 1025 F Street, N.W., Suite 800, Washington, D.C. 20004|Register Here
Please join the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Transnational Threats Project for a dialogue on U.S. counterterrorism strategy with Representatives Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and Michael Waltz (R-FL). Seth G. Jones, Harold Brown Chair and Director of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, will moderate a discussion between Rep. Spanberger and Rep. Waltz, who will offer their assessments on the current global terrorism landscape as well as the successes and enduring challenges of U.S. counterterrorism efforts.
While growing strategic focus on great power competition with China and Russia is warranted, a parallel leadership effort is needed to address the future of the global fight against terrorism and extremism. Topics for discussion include managing the enduring threats posed by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, defining a suitable end state in Afghanistan, developing a comprehensive strategy for countering violent extremism, and responding to homegrown violent extremist threats.
Moderator: Seth G Jones: Harold Brown Chair; Director, Transnational Threats Project; and Senior Adviser, International Security Program
Speakers:
Abigail Spanberger: United States Congresswoman (D-VA)
Michael Waltz: United State Congressman (R-FL)
7. U.S.-Taiwan relations: Reflections on 40 Years of the TRA|July 19, 2019|12:00pm|The Stimson Center|Register Here
Since President Jimmy Carter signed the Taiwan Relations Act into law in 1979, the United States and Taiwan have maintained unofficial relations, including trade, people-to-people exchanges, and cultural ties. In the forty years since the Act was signed, the U.S.-Taiwan relationship has been a long-standing friendship between two democracies, surviving periods of tension with China. Looking towards the future, the U.S.-Taiwan relationship will be increasingly important particularly as challenges intensify. Taiwan and the U.S.’s policies towards each other on economic and security issues as well as their shared values will be important factors in determining how these challenges are met.
Panelists:
Bonnie Glaser: Senior Adviser for Asia and Director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
Shelley Rigger: Ph.D., Brown Professor in the Political Science Department of Davidson College
Janice I. Chen: Deputy Director of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party Mission in the U.S.
8. Reporting on Civilian Casualties in the War Against ISIS|July 16, 2019|12:00pm|New America|Register Here
Reporters at U.S. media outlets strongly believed that civilian harm should be a central component of war coverage. Yet, civilian casualties from U.S. airstrikes have been patchily covered during the war against so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. This is one of the key findings in a new report by Airwars entitled, News in Brief: U.S. Media Coverage of Civilian Harm in the War Against ISIS. Authored by investigative journalist Alexa O’Brien, the report draws on new research and interviews with reporters at major U.S. media outlets, providing editors with recommendations for improved coverage. News in Brief is the result of a six-month study funded by the Reva and David Logan Foundation in the U.S. and the J. Leon Philanthropy Council in the U.K.
Moderator: Peter Bergen: Vice President, New America
Panelists:
Alexa O’Brien: Author, News in Brief
Azmat Khan: Future of War Fellows, Arizona State University & New America
Greg Jaffe: National Security Correspondent, Washington Post
Chris Woods: Executive Director, Airwars
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