Kosovo age 12

VoA’s Milan Nesic asked some questions on the 12th anniversary of Kosovo independence. I replied:

Q: Is Kosovo on a steady path of becoming a fully functional independent state?
A: No state’s path is steady, but Kosovo has just recently formed a democratically mandated government on the basis of free and fair election results. The media is mostly free. The Constitutional Court has demonstrated its independence repeatedly. It has a lively civil society and strong opposition. The economy has grown well, especially considering the slow growth in the EU. I don’t know many countries that have done a lot better in their first 12 years.

Q: What are the main obstacles?

A: Kosovo faces active efforts to undermine its institutions and constitution by its largest and most powerful neighbor, Serbia. Serbia’s anti-recognition campaign and its efforts to maintain political control over the Serbs who live in Kosovo are serious obstacles.

Kosovo suffers from the perception of high levels of corruption, which is a problem throughout the Balkans. Government procurement and nepotism seem to be the main problems. I expect the new government to crack down as best it can, if only to eliminate privileges that its competition established during its years in power.

Q: Is this the year in which Kosovo will become a member of the UN, Interpol, and UNESCO, or that process is still under great deal of uncertainties?

A: Still highly uncertain I would say, due to Serbia’s and Russia’s opposition. Interpol and UNESCO can be done in an hour if Serbia agrees. I think it should. The UN is a tougher goal, because quite apart from Belgrade, Moscow will try to extract a high price from the Americans, which Washington won’t want to pay.

Q: Are Kosovo and Serbia any closer to concluding an agreement by Kurti’s appointment as the prime minister?

A: Prime Minister Kurti has made it clear he will insist on reciprocity in relations with Serbia. I don’t think Belgrade is ready for that, even if I think Kurti is right to insist on it. I don’t expect any big move before the Serbian parliamentary election in April.

Q: Will Thaci be left out as a participant in the future negotiations?

A: He is trying hard to remain in the game by playing up the air transport agreement Special Envoy Grenell dreamed up, but the Constitutional Court has determined that negotiations with Belgrade are the responsibility of the Government, not the Parliament or the Presidency. Thaci is in his last year as President, with a government in power that includes his most vigorous opponents. He is not in a strong position.

PS: I should add another comment since the news this morning includes President Thaci signing transportation agreements with Serbia about which the Kosovo Prime Minister and Speaker of Parliament have declared their ignorance. This strikes me as extra-constitutional behavior that reflects poorly on both the Americans involved and the President.

This interview has also been published in Serbian, or whatever you want to call the region’s main Slavic language.