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Lebanon near collapse

“While the unprecedented mass demonstrations that began in October 2019 succeeded in pressuring the government of then-prime minister Saad Hariri to resign, they have yet to lead to the radical change that many protestoers were seeking. As Lebanon continues to flatten the coronavirus curve and as the country opens up again, the protest movement is expected to make a comeback, with protesters again voicing demands for an independent judiciary, accountability, early parliamentary elections, and financial reform—among others.” On June 17, 2020, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Center hosted a virtual panel discussion on the Lebanese protests’ resurgence and the prospects for real reform in Lebanon. The discussion featured four speakers:

Maha Yahya: director of the Carnegie Middle East Center

Lara Bitar: founding editor of The Public Source.

Alia Ibrahim: founding partner and chairwoman of Daraj.

Jean Kassir: co-founder and managing editor of Megaphone

Current Crisis

Bitar underscores that for the last thirty years, Lebanon has endured paramount social, economic, and environmental crises. Yahya regards Lebanon’s current situation as the most significant crisis it has faced since the 1975-1990 Lebanese Civil War.

1. The Lebanese political power sharing model remains on the verge of collapse. Lebanon possesses a “sectarian-confessional governmental system” in which high-ranking offices are reserved for members of specific religious groups. The President must be a Maronite Catholic, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim, the Speaker of the Parliament must be a Shi’a Muslim, and the Deputy Speaker of Parliament must be Eastern Orthodox Christian. This system is based on the last census of the Lebanese population in 1932 and in theory, is intended to deter sectarian conflict and fairly represent the demographic distribution of Lebanon’s recognized religious groups.

2. The Lebanese economic model of banking and tourism has collapsed, and Yahya predicts that there will be an exodus of Lebanon’s remaining middle class professionals.  

3. The Lebanese pound has lost 50-60% of its value. The World Bank predicts that poverty in Lebanon could rise to 50% if the economic situation worsens. In addition, the World Bank estimates that unemployment, especially among youth, may sharply rise.

4. The Lebanese government says that Lebanon’s public debt has reached $83 billion. Businesses within Lebanon continue to collapse and in January 2020 alone, it has been estimated that nearly 200,000 Lebanese citizens lost their jobs.

5. COVID-19 lockdowns have highlighted structural inequalities and socio-economic disparities in Lebanon. 

Lebanon since the October 17th revolution

Bitar believes that the prominent feelings of euphoria felt by Lebanese citizens at the start of the October 17^th (2019) thawra, or revolution, has disappeared and future prospects remain grim. In addition to the nearing financial collapse, Lebanese face the constant prospect of shortages of medical supplies, food, and petrol. Bitar highlights that in the last few weeks, domestic migrant workers have been abandoned on the streets of their consulates in Beirut. 

Kassir stresses the increasing role of young Lebanese citizens in political discourse. Kassir believes that young people have traditionally felt alienated by the ways in which politics have been conducted in Lebanon. Since the beginning of the October 17th revolution, Lebanon has witnessed a rise in anti-establishment sentiment among its youth.

Ibrahim underscores the increasing restrictions placed on the independent press in Lebanon since October 17. The Lebanese judiciary has recently allowed the prosecution of those critical on social media of the Lebanese President, Michel Aoun. Going forward, Ibrahim believes that much work must be done to ensure the legal protection of those working in the independent media. In co-founding Megaphone, Kassir attempts to create space in which one can think critically about economic and social issues. Furthermore, Kassir aims to provide a platform for the amplification of the voices of Lebanon’s most marginalized groups. These groups include women, refugees, and migrant workers.