Day: June 28, 2020
Shore up the Kosovo state
This week’s announcement that the prosecutor of the Specialist Chambers in The Hague has recommended an indictment of Kosovo President Hashim Thaci and a former Speaker of the parliament wrecked the prospects for a Serbia/Kosovo supposedly “economic” summit that was to have taken place in Washington this weekend. That has led some to conclude that Europeans plotted the maneuver, as they resented the American initiative and some have targeted Thaci for years. I’m more inclined to think the Americans did it to themselves, because they had concluded the summit had little chance of success.
Whatever. It’s hard to believe the unusual, some would say illegitimate, initiative to publicize the indictment recommendation was not known in both in Brussels and Washington before it happened. Neither stopped it. The result is an earthquake that has shaken the Kosovo state.
The right reaction is to reinforce that state. Kosovo will need a government with a wider margin in parliament and a new president.
No Kosovo prime minister should come to Washington or Brussels to re-engage in the dialogue with Belgrade without a majority that comes close to matching that of President Vucic, who won more than 75% of the his parliament’s seats in last weekend’s election in Serbia, as the opposition boycotted.
To achieve this, Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti, who came into office less than two months ago, would need to bring in either Thaci’s Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) or Vetevendosje (Self-Determination, or VV), which led the short-lived government that preceded Hoti’s. Both joining the government is asking too much, as they despise each other. The PDK will be licking its wounds, as the President is its founder and the Speaker is its party secretary, and there are likely other proposed indictees among its leadership. VV would drive a hard bargain but would be a hefty addition to a weak coalition.
If the indictment is confirmed in July, President Thaci will need to resign–in dignity–and commit to go to The Hague to defend himself. There is ample precedent for this: former Prime Minister Haradinaj resigned twice to defend himself in The Hague, successfully. The parliament will then need to elect a new chief of state, or risk new elections within 45 days. A distinguished, uncompromised, and unpolitical candidate, comparable to former President Atifete Jahjaga, is the right direction. Kosovo has an ample supply of well-qualified people, especially women. Few of them can be accused of war crimes and many are unsullied by corruption and other malfeasance.
A new election would likely bring VV back to power with stronger representation in parliament than it had the last time around, when it came in first by a smidgen. But the time and political competition required for an election would leave Kosovo adrift at a crucial moment. A weakened state would be vulnerable to all sorts of shenanigans, by Europeans, Americans, Russians and others. It would be far better if VV’s obvious political strength could be recognized without repeating the October 2019 contest.
With a new president and a widened government, Kosovo needs first and foremost to stabilize itself, ending all attacks on Serbs and Serb property as well as the internecine quarreling within its majority Albanian population, which makes Kosovo look ungovernable. Attacks on Serbs give Belgrade the ammunition it needs to argue that the ethnic groups need to be separated and Serb-occupied territory transferred to Serbia as well as much of the Serb population south of the Ibar river. Such a land/people transfer is an enormous threat to Kosovo as an independent and sovereign state, as it would remove a big obstacle to union with Albania: the Serb population.
The cancelled Washington summit was ill-conceived and no loss to anyone. But Kosovo and Serbia both need to improve their political and economic relations. The EU-run dialogue has been without significant results since 2013, but Brussels still holds the key incentives to make normalization between the two countries a reality, including the promise of Kosovo recognition by the five nonrecognizing EU states. The proper US role is one of support for the EU, which is admittedly difficult right now because the Trump Administration dislikes both Europe and the Union. It would be much easier in a Biden Administration, which is starting to look likely as Covid-19 resurges across red states in the south and west.
But that question won’t be resolved until November 3. Right now the power balance in the Balkans is what counts. Serbia is already strong. Strengthening the Kosovo state is a prerequisite for a better outcome.
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Protest rises across the Middle East
“Today we are witnessing not only Lebanon and Iraq’s powerful protest movements calling for greater rights and an end to corruption, but also solidarity movements in Palestine and Syria supporting the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States. What common goals are shared by protest movements across the Middle East? What lessons can the civil resistance currently surging in the United States learn from social movements and activism in the Middle East, and vice versa? What impact has COVID-19 had on ongoing protests in Lebanon and Iraq?” On June 24, the Middle East Institute held an online discussion on protests and solidarity movements in states throughout the Middle East. The event was moderated by Zahra Hakir and featured four guest speakers:
Zahra Hankir (Moderator): Freelance journalist and author, Our Women on the Ground: Essays by Arab Women Reporting from the Arab World
Zahra Ali: Assistant Professor of Sociology, Rutgers University-Newark
Ahmed Abu Artema: Palestinian journalist and peace activist
Razan Ghazzawi: Doctoral candidate, University of Sussex
Lokman Slim: Director, Hayya Bina and UMAM
Iraq
Ali believes that the protests that have occurred across Iraq since October 2019 symbolize an unprecedented attempt by ordinary Iraqis to change the course of their nation’s contemporary history. In Tahrir Square in Baghdad, activists occupy the streets and have begun to provide free educational and cultural services to Iraqi citizens. Through their work, these activists have developed new codes of conduct that question traditional conceptions of gender norms. Ali believes that the US invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003 engendered divisions along sectarian lines. To protesters in Iraq, resentment against these divisions lay at the heart of their dismay.
Syria
Ghazzawi highlights that recent protests in Daraa, Idlib, Afrin, Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and Suwayda arose following the imposition of new political and socio-economic realities by the Syrian state, Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The demand to release detained protesters has uniformly resonated throughout protests across Syria. Ghazzawi believes that these protests challenge previous analysis of essentialist notions of sectarianism in Syria. In addition, Ghazzawi finds these protests to be significant in the way in which they challenge authoritiarian, colonial, and partition geography. The protests require one to think beyond the model of the Syrian state vis-à-vis the opposition.
Solidarity with BLM in Palestinian Territories
There is a history of solidarity between the cause of Palestinian liberation and Black social justice movements. Abu Artema highlights the recent development of solidarity movements in the Palestinian Territories with the Black Lives Matter movement and protests against the death of George Floyd. Abu Artema stresses that in expressing solidarity with the Black Lives Matter movement, Palestinians have simultaneously protested against instances of aggression by Israeli soldiers.
Lebanon
Slim underscores that the rise of anti-establishment protests in Lebanon has surpassed sectarian lines. Similar to Iraq, Lebanon remains plagued by the ramifications of sectarian divisions. Because of the economic collapse and the failure of the Lebanese healthcare system amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, protests in Lebanon have increased in intensity. To Slim, these protests have exposed growing dislike for Hezbollah among Lebanese citizens, who associate the group with Lebanon’s corrupt government. Furthermore, the enactment of the United States Caesar Civilian Protection Act may have deleterious consequences for Hezbollah, which has backed the Assad-regime throughout the Syrian Civil War.
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Peace Picks | June 29 – July 5
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- WEBCAST | Natural Resources, Sustainable Development, and Peace in Africa | June 30, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | Wilson Center | Register Here
In many parts of Africa, conflict, natural resources, governance, development, and peace are inextricably linked. The continent’s rich and diverse natural resources have long been objects of conflict as well as sources of potential and actual development. Most countries depend on their natural resources for local livelihoods, national revenues and export earnings, and foreign exchange. However, exploitation, management (or lack thereof), and competition over these same natural resources has, at times, sparked or sustained devastating conflict. In many resource-endowed, but impoverished local communities the exploitation of natural resources results in the degradation of the environment, and fuels conflict.
This event will examine the intersection of civil society and peacebuilding in natural resource-rich African countries. It will interrogate their roles in community engagement, the promotion of accountability, and development based on inclusive, transparent, and sustainable resource management. In this regard, it will address the following related questions, including: what roles have African civil society groups played in natural resource development and management on the continent? What are some of the major challenges they face, and what lessons can be shared from across Africa in engaging and empowering civil society on this issue? How can governments, private businesses, local communities, and civil society work together to build peace and secure just, inclusive, and sustainable development? Finally, the event will offer policy options for boosting the meaningful inclusion of civil society groups and local communities in transforming natural resource development and management.
Speakers:
Dauda Garuba: Technical Advisor, Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Inititave (NEITI)
Resty Naiga: Lecturer, Department of Development Studies, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Makerere University
Cosmas Milton Obote Ochieng: Director, African Natural Resources Center, African Development Bank
Seydina Ousmame Sene: Senior Economist, Initiative Prospective Agricole et Rurale (IPAR)
Monde Muyangwa: Africa Program Director , Wilson Center
Cyril Obi: Program Director, African Peacebuilding Network, Social Science Research Council
- Can Cooperation on Missile Defense Avoid a US-China Nuclear Arms Race? | June 30, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Watch Event Here
Despite the U.S. threat to spend China “into oblivion,” Beijing has refused to participate in arms control talks with Washington and Moscow. China categorically rejects the notion that it is arms racing and believes that growing military threats—U.S. missile defenses in particular—demand comprehensive efforts to modernize and enhance its nuclear deterrent capability. A new Carnegie report by Tong Zhao, to be launched at this event, examines the widening perception gap on missile defense and asks what the two countries can do to prevent a nuclear arms race that could undermine global security.
Speakers:
Oriana Mastro: assistant professor at Georgetown University and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
- The World Order after COVID-19 Forum | Two Day Event: June 30, 2020 11:00 AM – 5:00 PM & July 1, 2020 9:00 AM – 4:00 PM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
The two-day conference will feature a keynote address from former Google CEO and Chairman Eric Schmidt and “A Conversation with former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers.” Conference panelists from Johns Hopkins’ ten schools and departments as well as its key programs including the SNF Agora Institute and Applied Physics Laboratory will offer expertise and global insights on preparing for the post-COVID-19 world.
- Where Do Iraq’s Religious and Ethnic Minorities Stand Post-ISIS? | June 30, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:45 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Six years after the Islamic State’s genocidal rampage across northern Iraq, circumstances for traumatized religious and ethnic minorities remain dire. Thousands remain displaced, unable or unwilling to return to their homes in Nineveh province amid ongoing security challenges and other barriers to their safe return. Meanwhile, new sources of instability in Iraq—including the coronavirus pandemic, a financial crisis, and renewed threats of an ISIS resurgence—have highlighted the fragility of any improved stability in minority-rich areas, as well as the need for ongoing and intensive efforts to facilitate the sustainable return of all displaced communities.
Join USIP as it hosts Assistant Secretary Robert A. Destro from the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL), as well as a panel of experts, for a discussion on the current reality for Iraqi religious and ethnic minorities, the international response in the aftermath of ISIS’s military defeat, and the impact of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the new Iraqi government, and potential early elections.
Speakers:
Nancy Lindborg: President & CEO, United States Institute of Peace
Robert A. Destro: Assistant Secretary for the U.S. State Department Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor
William Warda: Member of the General Assembly and External Relations Committee, Alliance of Iraqi Minorities; and
Director of Public Relations, Hammurabi Human Rights Organization
Susan Aref: Director and Founder, Women Empowerment Organization
Osama Gharizi: Iraq Senior Program Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Lee Tucker (moderator): Senior Program Officer, Middle East, United States Institute of Peace
- The Rule of Law in Afghanistan | July 1, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
As governments face the devastating economic and social effects of the coronavirus pandemic, identifying and addressing rule of law issues related to transparency, corruption, human rights, and the delivery of justice will be paramount to the recovery process. The World Justice Project’s (WJP) new report on the rule of law in Afghanistan presents a unique portrait of the country’s rule of law strengths and weaknesses by using extensive survey data collected from the general public, in-country legal practitioners, and ground-breaking interviews with individuals incarcerated in the Afghan prison system.
The latest edition of this report, which reflects the experiences and perceptions of more than 17,500 Afghans interviewed over five years, presents a comprehensive summary of the rule of law situation in Afghanistan and contains new, in-depth findings on the performance of the criminal justice system.
Join USIP and WJP for an in-depth conversation on the report’s findings, as well as crucial factors for the rule of law in Afghanistan. Panelists will also discuss how the report can encourage data-driven policy choices and guide program development to strengthen the rule of law.
Speakers:
Alejandro Ponce: Chief Research Officer, World Justice Project
Amy Gryskiewicz: Director, Criminal Justice Research, World Justice Project
Abdullah Ahmadzai: Country Representative, Afghanistan, The Asia Foundation
Ghizaal Haress: Ombudsperson, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Scott Worden (moderator): Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, USIP
- Government Accountability in the Age of COVID-19 | July 1, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The Covid-19 health crisis has been matched by deep challenges related to misinformation, governance and trust. In the absence of effective responses, citizens, civil society groups and public sector reformers are finding creative ways to rebuild the social contract between states and their people. Please join CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development for a unique opportunity to hear stories from the ground in South Africa, Mali, and Nepal about how Covid-19 is affecting government accountability in these countries, what collective efforts to debunk rumors and fight fake news around the pandemic have been taken, and what steps have been taken to tackle corruption.
Speakers:
Romina Bandura: Senior Fellow, Project on Prosperity and Development, Project on US Leadership in Development, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Cheri- Leigh Erasmus: Global Director of Learning, Accountability Lab
Narayan Adhikari: Country Director Nepal, Accountability Lab
Doussouba Konaté: Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Officer for Mali, Accountability Lab
- Turkish-Israeli Relations: Prospects for Improved Development | July 1, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Over the past decade Israel-Turkey relations have been strained. There have been recent positive signs, however. Israel’s decision not to sign a statement by France, Greece, Cyprus, the UAE, and Egypt condemning Turkey’s actions in the eastern Mediterranean and a tweet posted by Israel’s official Twitter account praising its diplomatic relations with Turkey raised hopes. Turkish analysts saw the moves as a sign of both countries’ willingness to cooperate when it comes to eastern Mediterranean energy but tensions remain.
How does Israel and Turkey’s involvement in Syria and increasing opportunities for economic cooperation affect the prospect of improved bilateral relations? How will Israel’s plans for annexation and Turkey’s public support for the Palestinians affect diplomatic relations? Are there enough incentives to normalize Israel-Turkey relations or will the barriers be insurmountable?
Speakers:
Nimrod Goren: Founder and head of Mitvim, The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Soli Ozel: Senior lecturer, Kadir Has University
Gönül Tol (Moderator): Director of Turkey Program and Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
- US Strategic Partnerships in the Black Sea | July 2, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The United States is present in the Black Sea region with three strategic partnerships focused on security with Georgia, Ukraine, and Romania. The strategic partnerships are tailored on the three countries with differing security challenges. While Romania is a NATO member state and a host of US military, Georgia and Ukraine are challenged in their sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, the three countries are brought together by their respective strategic partnerships with the United States, and shared threat perceptions and common security interests for the Black Sea region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a discussion with the Ambassadors of Georgia, Romania and Ukraine to the United States on the importance of US-Black Sea strategic partnerships.
What do the three strategic partnerships entail for national security? How do strategic partnerships and the United States presence impact Black Sea regional security? What are the priorities of US strategic partnerships for future regional security?
Speakers
David Bakradze: Georgian Ambassador to the United States
George Maior: Romanian Ambassador to the United States
Yelchenko Volodymyr: Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States
Iulia Joja (moderator): Senior fellow, Middle East Institute, Frontier Europe Initiative
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