Don’t be fooled

Rasha Gaddh of Al-Sharq News asked some followup questions after reading my post from earlier today. I answered.

Q: President Trump’s tone toward Russia and Putin changed following last month’s NATO summit and pressure from NATO allies urging him to commit more strongly to Ukraine. Do you believe this is the reason behind his shift in stance? What other factors may have contributed to his loss of patience with Moscow?

A: Trump is trying to fend off both NATO pressure and domestic political pressure to do more to counter Russia. He is doing so by pretending to get tough but in fact doing nothing substantial.

Q: Do you think Russia will comply with the threat and end the war within the 50-day deadline?

A: Russia will do everything it can to gain territory during the 50 days. It may then agree to a ceasefire, but not an end to the war, unless it has gained all of the territory it has already in theory annexed. Trump has already promised Putin no NATO membership for Ukraine.

Q: If the deadline passes without Russian compliance, what actions is the U.S. administration likely to take? What kind of sanctions might be imposed on Russia, and in which sectors?

A: I doubt Trump will do anything serious. He is committed to strengthening Russia.

The key to sanctions is to end Russian use of a “ghost fleet” to export oil and to end transshipment of goods to Russia from Europe and the US through former Soviet republics.