The bright spot is visible but not certain

I’ve rarely seen our country and the world in such lousy shape.

The Middle East shambles

The litany of bad news from the Middle East is long:

1. Oil tanker transits out of the strait of Hormuz are down to perhaps 40% of the pre-war level.
2. The Houthis have tightened control of the Bab el-Mandeb entrance/exit to the Red Sea.
3. The opposition to the Houthis is fragmented and failing to stop their advances.
4. Iraqi militia drones have struck the East-West pipeline that the Saudis need to get oil to the Red Sea.
5. American air defense missile stocks are way down (THAAD down 80%, Patriots more than 50%).
6. Iranian attacks have badly damaged US bases throughout the Middle East.
7. Iranian targeting of US naval ships is improving.
8. Russia is helping Iran build jet-powered drones and target US forces
9. Oil prices are above $100 per barrel and headed higher as stocks hit bottom.
10. Diesel prices in the US, which have an impact on all products because of its use in trucking, are hitting records.
11. Gasoline prices are up more than 30% over last year and headed higher.
12. Two million Palestinians are living in dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza.
13. The Israeli government is building new settlements and settlers are chasing Palestinians from the West Bank.
14. Israel is occupying southern Lebanon and making it difficult for the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah.
15. Trump’s offer of a nuclear agreement, including enrichment, to Saudi Arabia is giving everyone in the Middle East reason to get enrichment.

I could go on. But you get the point. The war has gone badly for the US and promises to go worse in the future. Moreover, the Israelis are making it certain that a Palestinian state will not be able to emerge.

The news on other fronts isn’t great either.

Ukraine is struggling

1. Russian President Putin is planning at least a partial mobilization to get more manpower/cannon fodder.
2. Russia’s financial situation has improved due to temporary lifting of US sanctions and higher oil prices.
3. Ukraine is lacking in air defenses, due in part to the US using the Patriots to take down cheap drones in the Middle East.
4. North Korea is sending more troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine.
5. Russian “gray zone” attacks in Europe are increasing.
6. The sanctions bill against Russia is stalled in the US Congress, and likely won’t be used by Trump anyway.
7. Trump’s negotiators are hopelessly compromised by conflicts of interest.

Asia

1. It was always doubtful that the US would defend Taiwan, but now it is doubtful it would have the munitions even if it wanted to do so.
2. Trump’s blathering is convincing South Korea and possibly Japan to think about nuclear weapons.
3. Those two points are no doubt making some Chinese analysts think Beijing should take Taiwan by force sooner rather than later.
4. China is successfully defying the US on trade.

The bright spot

I could go on. Things aren’t going well on AI. Bots are escaping human control while citizens are resisting building the electrical plants it needs. The trade war with Canada is ridiculous and harmful to all the states on the border and most of those farther south. Tariffs are raising prices. The American economy is heading for higher interest rates and a likely recession as the Fed tries to get control of inflation. The President is offering a trillion-dollar payments to citizens in exchange for votes, even though he has done nothing so far to reduce the deficit. The government is cutting back on safety net programs like food stamps, day care, and Medicaid. Inflation has moved up to 3.4% and will likely go higher.

All these problems have a single cause: an Administration led and staffed by dummies. Not just Trump, who is so poorly educated that it is difficult to imagine why Wharton would have given him a degree. But rich white guys in the 1960s found it hard to flunk out of any major university. Vance, Vought, Miller, Hegseth, Bessent, Lutnick, Kennedy Jr., and many others have proven to be incompetent, ill-meaning, and autocratic. America would be better off without them or anyone like them ever holding power in Washington again.

So what’s the bright spot? I hope the election. Americans on November 3 have an opportunity to send most of the Trump sycophants in Congress home. I hope they are allowed to.