Blessed are the peacemakers

With the former Syrian prime minister predicting that the Asad regime is close to collapse, it is high time that the international community considered what comes next.  The heavy betting is on a chaotic and difficult to manage situation, but Rami Khouri offers a contrarian view:  a peaceful post-Asad order is probable, he says.  Is he right?

Khouri describes the conventional wisdom well:

The prevalent perceptions…include that Syria will long remain locked in domestic strife; the Alawites will face eternal hostility and revenge; sectarian civil war is likely to break out; the post-Assad struggle for power will be chaotic and perhaps violent; Syria could easily break up into several smaller ethnic statelets linked to neighboring states or compatriots; Syria’s collapse will trigger warfare across the region, and a few other such scenarios.

The evidence from other Arab transitions offers no support for the expectation that Syria’s transition will be a sectarian free-for-all. Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Libya’s self-ignited regime changes (unlike Iraq’s Anglo-American initiated mess) have not only avoided major sectarian troubles or violence, but in fact the re-legitimized constitutional processes have included a serious and deliberate attempt to make sure that all population groups are given equal opportunity to partake in public life and governance – not on the basis of sectarian quotas, but on the basis of equal citizenship.

The Syrian people are too intelligent, sophisticated and cosmopolitan to allow themselves to sink into a dark pit of sectarian warfare, even if their sick Baathist-led, Alawite-run power elite uses sectarianism and the specter of post-Assad chaos as tools of intimidation – tools that have failed miserably, in any case.

European forces might not be able to opt out so easily. Deploying as part of a potentially dysfunctional coalition of peacekeepers to calm a festering conflict is certainly not an appealing concept. But leaving the conflict to get worse — or letting Russia and regional powers carve up Syria, almost certainly fostering future wars — could be far more dangerous. All of this means that, whether it wants to or not, Europe may not be able to avoid playing a leading role in efforts to stabilize Syria.