Stevenson’s army, January 14

Loyalty test? Army loyalty test.
UCMJ can be used against rioters.
Algorithms have consequences.

CNN explains why the JCS spoke out.
Note the leadership gaps.
Administration touts new Taiwan policy — and declassifies its major policy paper.
WSJ says Iran is working on nuclear weapons materials.

CNAS has new report on countering China’s technology policy.
Thinking like a politician: Punchbowl News suggests motives of the ten GOP who voted for impeachment.

Ten Republicans voted for Trump’s impeachment. Here’s how to think of them:

Rep. John Katko of New York is an upstate Republican who always has a tough general election race. His defection is notable because he’s the top Republican on the Homeland Security Committee — a chair if Republicans win the House back — so a break like this with the president is something.

Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois has been a harsh Trump critic for quite awhile. So, no surprise here, and no internal dynamics to note. He’s picked a lane — institutional hawk with an independent, anti-Trump streak — and he’s sticking to it. 

Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, of course, is the most notable yes vote. Her decision to support impeachment likely gave political cover to the rest of the nine who joined her. Cheney’s internal image has been cemented: If you’re aligned with Trump, she’s a turncoat. If you’re part of the party that wants to move on from the 45th president, she did well by you. More about her in a minute. 

Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan is a veteran Republican who doesn’t get hurt by standing up for what he believes in. Upton has been in the House for 35 years — he probably has 100 percent name ID at home. His district went narrowly for Trump in 2020 — 51-47 — and Upton won by nearly 16 points. 

Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington State also has a district that voted narrowly for Trump. She typically wins her seat handily. She has no leadership position at risk by taking this vote.

Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington State was on everyone’s watch list. Newhouse said before the vote he was undecided and then dropped a statement right as he got to the floor saying he’d vote to oust Trump. Newhouse’s district is solidly for Trump, so we’ll see how this plays out for him politically. 

Rep. Peter Meijer of Michigan continues a trend of really interesting Republicans from the Grand Rapids area — Meijer’s predecessor was Justin Amash. This district seems to reward people who don’t fall in line with the party. Also, Meijer’s family owns the massive Meijer supermarket chain in the Midwest, so he has the personal resources and name ID to withstand attacks.

Rep. Tom Rice of South Carolina was a shocker that the Hill press corps and GOP leadership didn’t see coming. His district is conservative — Trump won by 20 points — and many people thought his yes vote was a mistake. It wasn’t. He said this in a statement Wednesday evening:

It has been a week since so many were injured, the United States Capitol was ransacked, and six people were killed, including two police officers. Yet, the President has not addressed the nation to ask for calm. He has not visited the injured and grieving. He has not offered condolences. Yesterday in a press briefing at the border, he said his comments were ‘perfectly appropriate.’ I have backed this President through thick and thin for four years. I campaigned for him and voted for him twice. But, this utter failure is inexcusable.

Rep. Anthony Gonzales of Ohio was a bit of a surprise to some onlookers. The former NFL wide receiver and Ohio State grad cuts his own image in the House.

Rep. David Valadao of California is perpetually one of the most endangered lawmakers in Congress. The Central Valley Republican was first elected in 2012, lost in 2018 and just won the House seat back. His district voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden in November, so politically, this is a good move.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).