Israel should try first, then US should act

President Trump has postponed a decision on the bunker buster question for two weeks. With him, that often means no decision at all. But the two weeks provide time for negotiations. That is a good thing. The Europeans are wisely trying to take advantage of the opportunity, so far without results.

It is still reasonable to ask whether the US should or should not act against the deeply buried enrichment facility known as Fordow, if negotiations fail.

Why not

The arguments against US use of bunker busters are strong but general. The US definitely does not need another Middle East war. Ensuring that Fordow is destroyed after the bombing might require deployment of US troops. That would bleed (pun intended) easily into regime change, with little chance of a good outcome. Any offensive US involvement in this war will increase Iran’s focus on US troops and citizens as terrorist targets.

The Israelis started this. They should finish it. The US should not get sucked into Jerusalem’s mistakes. Prime Minister Netanyahu defied the US and wrecked the ongoing negotiations. We shouldn’t reward him for doing that. A negotiated end to Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions would have served US interests better than the current war.

Why

But that is water under the bridge. If Fordow remains intact at the end of this war, Iran will race, as best it can, for a nuclear weapon. That would make things worse than the use of bunker busters. It would also encourage other proliferators to follow Iran’s lead. Saudi Arabia and Turkiye have both committed to matching Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

If we refuse to destroy Fordow and leave the Israelis to their own devices, the war could go on for a long time. That would keep Netanyahu in power and encourage his regime change fantasy. Continuation of the war is also not in the US interest. It will kill a lot of Iranians and make any organic regime change in the right direction unlikely.

What to do

The war is on. There is no point in wishing it didn’t happen. The US should tell the Israelis that they need to make their own good faith effort to destroy Fordow. That would likely mean a special forces ground operation, with details shared with the Americans. If they are unwilling, we should be unwilling too.

If they try and fail, we should be prepared to use the bunker busters, provided Israel pledges that destruction of Fordow will end the war. Their forces, not ours, should verify the destruction. An end to the war would be contingent on Iranian willingness to negotiate, but that is already manifest. Netanyahu will require a harder squeeze. US weapons shipments should be suspended if he refuses.

So yes, bunker busters if the Israelis fail. But then Israel has to end the war.