Negotiations with Iran >>>>> bombing

Iranians have taken to the streets in massive numbers to protest, not always peacefully, their government’s economic failures. The Islamic Republic is violently trying to repress the demonstrations. President Trump is threatening to intervene militarily to stop the repression.

Military action is a dumb idea

Threatening military action may have some value as a negotiating tactic. But actually bombing would kill some civilians, generate sympathy with the regime, and cause much of the population to rally around the flag. Iranians are disappointed with their lot, but fearful of collapsing their governing institutions. They want economic results. They do not want what happened in Libya and Syria after 2011. That has poisoned the well of militarily-induced regime change.

Tehran has offered to negotiate with the US, in order forestall military action. Washington should accept. The agenda will have to include both nuclear and regional issues, which gives Washington a giant opportunity. The Islamic Republic is on its back foot on both issues.

If US military action were to kill the Supreme Leader, the potential for chaos thereafter would rise dramatically. Some in the US hope that Reza Pahlavi, the exiled eldest son of the last Shah, might take over. Many demonstrators have been chanting in his favor. But the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps won’t be prepared to allow that to happen without violent resistance.

The Islamic Republic as a revolutionary force has already ended. Moreover, Israel has dramatically weakened its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and Yemen. This makes Iran a much diminished regional power, but a dangerous one. An Iranian rush to develop nuclear weapons or a successful attack on Israel or on Syria’s President al-Sharaa could again roil the Middle East.

Succession

Negotiations could open the door to incentivizing or accelerating succession to Supreme Leader Khamenei. He is 86 years old.

The best way for him to ensure a successful transition would be to bow out gracefully, before someone shows him the exit. He could even resign in protest of renewed negotiations with the US, thus ensuring his hardline legacy.

And he might be able to designate his successor. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is a contestant. That would ensure at least short-term regime survival, which is a major concern in Tehran right now.

Outcomes

Accelerating the succession would also increase the range of possible outcomes. The strict sanctions policy and economic mismanagement have driven the country to desperation. Even the promise of limited sanctions relief could lead to serious concessions.

A broader grand bargain is also possible. The US and Iran do not have immutable reasons for their mutual hostility. Their history since World War I includes more or less friendship, or at least transactional mutual benefit, until the 1979 revolution birthed the Islamic Republic. Even after that, the Reagan Administration tried to exploit Iran to fund aid to the Contras in Nicaragua. President Trump won’t mind if Iran remains an autocracy. The main source of conflict is the Islamic Republic’s diehard opposition to the existence of the Jewish state.

Iran would need to end that, as Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan have already done in writing. So too have Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, without however signing on the dotted line. Tehran could continue to advocate for a Palestinian state, as the Arab states who have made their peace with Israel have done. A modus vivendi with Israel could yield enormous benefits for Iran and its people.